The new UK SARS-CoV-2 variant and lockdown - causes and consequences.

The new variant of concern (VOC), B.1.1.7, has a distinct set of mutations in nucleotides encoding the spike (S) protein on the surface of SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 previously accumulated mutations at a much slower rate, of 1-2 per month; the sudden appearance of a large cluster of mutations was thought to be unusual. We now suspect that VOC may have arisen from immunosuppressed individuals who shed virus for longer periods. Epidemiological analyses estimate VOC to be more infectious; this is of most concern because these estimates were calculated during periods where many regions of the UK were in high social distancing restrictions. Therefore, the previous 'tiered' system implemented in the UK was ineffective at containing VOC. The most likely reason for this is that previous restrictions, no matter how strict, still allowed for gatherings in certain places. VOC also has implications for the national vaccination programme - a higher proportion of people will need to be vaccinated with a more infectious virus. Prolongation of the second dose of vaccines to increase vaccine uptake has understandably caused concern, but is based on sound immunological principles. There is now an urgent need to monitor the effect of new variants on vaccine efficacy - marking a new chapter in the global fight against COVID-19.

The impact of ethnicity on clinical outcomes in COVID-19: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between ethnicity and COVID-19 is uncertain. We performed a systematic review to assess whether ethnicity has been reported in patients with COVID-19 and its relation to clinical outcomes. METHODS: We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library and PROSPERO for English-language citations on ethnicity and COVID-19 (1st December 2019-15th May 2020). We also reviewed: COVID-19 articles in NEJM, Lancet, BMJ, JAMA, clinical trial protocols, grey literature, surveillance data and preprint articles on COVID-19 in MedRxiv to evaluate if the association between ethnicity and clinical outcomes were reported and what they showed. PROSPERO:180654. FINDINGS: Of 207 articles in the database search, five reported ethnicity; two reported no association between ethnicity and mortality. Of 690 articles identified from medical journals, 12 reported ethnicity; three reported no association between ethnicity and mortality. Of 209 preprints, 34 reported ethnicity - 13 found Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) individuals had an increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 and 12 reported worse clinical outcomes, including ITU admission and mortality, in BAME patients compared to White patients. Of 12 grey literature reports, seven with original data reported poorer clinical outcomes in BAME groups compared to White groups. INTERPRETATION: Data on ethnicity in patients with COVID-19 in the published medical literature remains limited. However, emerging data from the grey literature and preprint articles suggest BAME individuals are at an increased risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to White individuals and also worse clinical outcomes from COVID-19. Further work on the role of ethnicity in the current pandemic is of urgent public health importance. FUNDING: NIHR.